The Orange View (on hiatus) Because Apple is great but it isn't perfect


Non-shocker: Horace Dediu thinks Google will fail

Former Nokia analyst Horace Dediu thinks Google's purchase of Motorola is doomed to failure just like Nokia's Symbian alliance.

The lesson (and warning) was that a licensor that is also a licensee makes other licensees uncomfortable. The supplier is also a competitor. This is classic channel conflict and never ends well.

Open or not, with or without equity, these arrangements are always unworkable.

-Asymco blog, August 15, 2011

Dediu has done some nice charts but his analysis is often marred by a pro-Apple, anti-Google bias, a kind of hindsight bias whereby then outcome of all of today's strategic decisions is dictated by the way past decisions went down. I wonder how closely Dediu was associated with the Symbian effort when he was at Nokia.

UPDATE: It's almost worth clicking over to Horace's blog to read the hilarious group-think of Apple fans in a tizzy.

Posted by Aaron Pressman

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  1. I see at least two big (quite possibly decisive) differences between Google/Android and Nokia/Symbian:

    1. Google has been an open-source company since the beginning (Linux on commodity hardware). They have a proven track record of participating in and managing many, many open-source projects. Nokia’s open-source DNA was much weaker (primarily via the Troll Tech acquisition, IIRC and Troll Tech had its own open-source issues [KDE / Gnome split] back in the day).

    2. The Symbian Foundation was created as Symbian was failing (post-iPhone) and could be viewed as an almost Mozilla-like hail-mary pass. Android has been open source since the beginning of the Open Handset Alliance and succeeded later. That is a very different starting environment.

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